However, the proposed solution—taking control of De Beers—is a high-stakes gamble. It could allow Botswana to finally capture the full value of its mineral wealth, but it also risks sinking the nation deeper into debt and dependency on a beleaguered industry. Whether President Boko’s bold vision will lead to a new era of diamond-driven prosperity or a cautionary tale of overreach is a story that is still being written in the mines of Jwaneng and the negotiating rooms of Gaborone.
De Beers possesses a global marketing apparatus that maintains the allure and luxury status of natural diamonds. Without this marketing power, the baseline value of Botswana's primary export could collapse in the face of shifting consumer generational preferences. Navigating the Future: Beyond De Beers
Botswana may not be capturing enough value from its diamonds, despite being the world's second-largest diamond producer by value (after Russia) and home to Debswana — a 50/50 joint venture with De Beers.
How De Beers Shaped - and Still Controls - the Diamond Market De Beers possesses a global marketing apparatus that
While the government has touted the deal as a positive step towards "long-term prosperity" and job creation, critics were quick to note that the final agreement fell short of the provisional 50% share that had been discussed in 2023. For a country that supplies an estimated 70% of De Beers’ rough diamonds but owns only 15% of the company itself, the new arrangement is seen by many as too little, too late.
Botswana finalized a landmark 10-year diamond sales and mining agreement with De Beers, bringing an end to seven years of tense negotiations and fundamentally altering the power dynamics between the African nation and the global diamond giant. Under the agreement, Botswana’s direct share of rough diamonds produced by the Debswana joint venture increased from 25% to 30% for the first five years, scaling up to 40% in the subsequent five years, with options for a further 50/50 split extension.
Diamonds are the lifeblood of the Botswana economy, typically accounting for roughly one-third of government revenue and up to 80% of export earnings. In the 2025/26 budget, the government projected mineral revenues of just 10.3 billion Pula (approximately $770 million), a catastrophic drop from the historical average of 25.3 billion Pula. The shortfall, according to the finance ministry, "is likely to persist over the medium to long term with a possibility of a non-recovery". How De Beers Shaped - and Still Controls
To understand whether Botswana is getting a raw deal, one must look at the mechanics of the current arrangement. The relationship operates primarily through , a 50/50 joint venture between the government of Botswana and De Beers.
The conflict came to a head this spring. Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi demanded that state-owned Okavango Diamond Company be allowed to sell 50% of the local production independently, bypassing De Beers’ London sorting room. De Beers countered with an offer of 30%.
Is Botswana getting a raw deal? In the strictest financial sense regarding value addition and downstream integration, the answer has historically been yes . The nation has been a passive supplier of raw wealth rather than an active participant in the luxury market. funded its free education
Despite these gains, critics and local leaders argue the nation remains vulnerable:
Why the aggression now? Because Botswana finally has leverage. De Beers' supply from other major sources, like South Africa and Canada, has dwindled. Furthermore, sanctions on Russian diamonds (Alrosa) have tightened global supply. Botswana is currently the world’s largest producer of diamonds by value. Without Botswana’s output, De Beers would struggle to maintain its dominance in the market.
For decades, the sparkling relationship between the arid nation of Botswana and the diamond giant De Beers has been hailed as the "perfect marriage." Diamonds built Botswana’s middle class, funded its free education, and transformed it from one of the poorest countries on Earth into Africa’s most stable, upper-middle-income economy.